How has your life changed in Covid-19 crisis?

Big Daddy

Super User
If you were to argue then you could claim that networking companies and health care companies will be winners of this so called pandemic. However, recommendations are difficult to make without knowing your investment horizon. In my case, I have no horizon. I have created a trust and all of my investments will go to charity. The trust is supposed to last for many 100 years because the way I have set it up is that the trust will annually distribute only 2.5% of its assets to charity.
 
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Alan97

New Member
@foadbear you are right. We will learn to live with the virus.

Herd immunity is a polite term for herd helplessness.
That could be one way out of the virus, but a lot and I mean a lot of people will die if that is what we are leaning towards. We have also passed the point where we can't have strict lockdowns anymore as countries are getting affected economically and a lot of people will die of hunger and thirst if we were to under go a strict lockdown.
 

Big Daddy

Super User
@Big Daddy do you go out with a mask?

Also, impressed about your 150 published papers. Can you point me toward them? I love reading published papers...
I have been doing this for 30 years. Unfortunately, I like to stay anonymous because that is the only way I can write things the way I believe. No one really knows me on this board. Also, I am famous internationally so last thing I want is people knowing my identity and then reading my posts. Besides, there is also a risk of defamation of the organization I work for as my statements can be considered as statements from my organization like Coronavirus is a scam. The funny thing is that one journal contacted me to write a paper on Coronavirus mitigation strategies for a special issue on Coronavirus. From research standpoint, it is very interesting problem (not necessarily Coronavirus but the spread of the pandemic in general). Dynamic equilibrium models such as predator-prey population evolution can be modified to investigate how disease spreads with reference to containment strategies (such as masks, social distancing, etc.). You can also use probabilistic models to investigate the dynamics of both diseases spread under different resource allocation constraints. Research is a lot of fun. Unfortunately, I will not write a paper on this topic. The real reason is that I am seeing death hanging over my head as I am getting older. So, my research is really not about publishing research papers to maximize published papers, but finding out what are my absolute unique skills in the world and publishing only that work because if I do not write it then the world will never know those ideas ever.

To answer your question, yes I do wear mask and I will practice social distancing. I will follow social norms as that is a polite thing to do.
 

Theloststory

Well-Known Member
@Big Daddy yes of course!

And I am wondering if you are so convinced that mortality is only 0.26% why you would wear a mask. But it’s your life. Have a great day ahead.
 

citymonk

Super User
@Big Daddy yes of course!

And I am wondering if you are so convinced that mortality is only 0.26% why you would wear a mask. But it’s your life. Have a great day ahead.
As he tells it is due to politeness to other citizens around.

Plus there is not much harm in wearing a mask for some time outside home.

I think wearing mask does not mean you are protecting yourself by becoming invincible but main benefit of mask is that you will not infect others even if they are without mask due to some reason.
 

Big Daddy

Super User
The complete data is not released on purpose, but you can still make reasonable independence assumption to compute death rate. In Active cases 99% are in mild conditions and 1% are in serious condition. In closed cases, 93% are discharged and 7% die as per (Coronavirus Update (Live): 13,495,260 Cases and 582,125 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer).

The 0.2% death rate is not my estimate but CDC estimate. However, a dirty estimate given limited data would be that if 1% of serious cases get admitted and 93% of these get discharged (I know there is overlap but independence assumption means that both ratios are independent of each other) and 7% die then under the assumptions, the death rate suggested by data under independence assumption is: 1% multiplied by 7% = 0.07%. That is what the data tells us. Either way, CDC estimates and data suggests death rate is less than 1%. This means herd immunity already exists. It will be hard for anyone to convince me otherwise. The only immunity that we need is against herd stupidity.
 
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Theloststory

Well-Known Member
Exactly asked. Since you are so confident that mortality is negligible and herd immunity exists I wonder why you still wear a mask.

You last statement implies politeness isn’t altogether it. So let’s end it here.
 
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