Freak weather phenoma in the Himalayas this spring/summer
As you all know, snowfall in winters brought lot of cheer to farmer. however, snowfall was restricted to a narrow window, and by end march early april a heat wave with temperatures going 12 degrees above normal hit the mountains.
there was talk of manali leh highway opening in April itself.
However, from mid april onwards, we have had bouts of western disturbance hitting the himalayas every second day. Kashmir is reeling in floods and the high passes get mild to heavy snowfall every second day. An avalanche has blocked chang La too.
So what feeds this. Well to see this see the water vapor channel image. From Haryana, to MP you will see black, this is the dry zone. We are getting dry dust storms and heat wave.
However move further north, you will see that there is heavy vapor content in the upper atmosphere. This acts as a feeder to the western disturbance coming from Mediterranean sea. Mild cloud systems get stronger over Pakistan, and then dump over the Himalayas, esp western Himalayas.
This vapor system along is not enough to cause snowfall, but whenever a cloud system comes in, it will feed it.
So when will it stop. My guess is that monsoon is breaking over at Bay of Bengal, and soon we will see wind reversal. the Vapor system will be pushed northwards, and there will be a lull in weather for 3-4 weeks till the pre monsoon rains start.
The cyclone Laila will be a precursor to the wind reversal.
Remember all these are met dept theories etc., As for ground reality, Keylong AWS(Automatic Weather Station) has stopped receiving rain. So we can safely say the worst is over.
Unfortunately, Kashmir has no AWS. which is linked to live IMD Kolkata website. If there were a few AWS linked to the grid, we would be able to see real time precipitation data for Kashmir too.
However, we have to rely on news reports for these things.
Last but not the least, this weather phenomena is a stronger repeat of the last years phenomena. Failing of winter is a cause. Its sounds funny, but if winters fail, it can lead to more snowfall.
This is how it happens.
Overheating in spring causes low pressure pockets which such moisture. The western disturbances which are weak and cannot reach beyond Afghanistan, are now sucked with more vigour. So if you have 12 degrees above normal in April, it will act like a vaccum pump, sucking everything. This is what is happening.
Winter snowfall has all but vanished from Uttaranchal, and is scattered in Himachal. That is being replaced by summer rains and freak weather systems.
Not only that, even the plains now reel under consistent high temperatures.
Remember, the mercury touching 47 degrees for 2 hours in the afternoon is a lot better than staying 40 from 8am to 8pm.
Minimum temperatures are also going up, so there is no respite even in early mornings.
What to expect in future
1. More snow and storms in April/May
2. Lack of precipitation in winters
3. Reduction in monsoon rains(though that is heavily dependent on El Nina/Nino
4. Shifting of agricultural seasons - For example, Lahaul valley started sowing potatoes early this year due to high temperatures
