The Weather and Meteorology thread

Discussion in 'India Travel News' started by tsk1979, May 20, 2010.

  1. tsk1979

    tsk1979 Reclaimed and Recycled

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    We often discuss satellite images etc., in various different threads.
    the aim of this thread is to
    1. Discuss general weather trends in the country
    2. Discuss freak weather occurances(Cyclones, snowfalls rains) etc.,
    This is the first post of this thread. Here we will put 2 satellite images, which will keep updating every 6 hours
    Infra Red Channel
    [​IMG]
    Water Vapor channel - High water vapor means precipitation can happen sooner. In the himalayas, even low water vapor clouds can result in mild snowfall
    [​IMG]

    In the subsequent posts we will be discussing the weather phenomena
     
  2. tsk1979

    tsk1979 Reclaimed and Recycled

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    Freak weather phenoma in the Himalayas this spring/summer

    As you all know, snowfall in winters brought lot of cheer to farmer. however, snowfall was restricted to a narrow window, and by end march early april a heat wave with temperatures going 12 degrees above normal hit the mountains.
    there was talk of manali leh highway opening in April itself.

    However, from mid april onwards, we have had bouts of western disturbance hitting the himalayas every second day. Kashmir is reeling in floods and the high passes get mild to heavy snowfall every second day. An avalanche has blocked chang La too.

    So what feeds this. Well to see this see the water vapor channel image. From Haryana, to MP you will see black, this is the dry zone. We are getting dry dust storms and heat wave.
    However move further north, you will see that there is heavy vapor content in the upper atmosphere. This acts as a feeder to the western disturbance coming from Mediterranean sea. Mild cloud systems get stronger over Pakistan, and then dump over the Himalayas, esp western Himalayas.

    This vapor system along is not enough to cause snowfall, but whenever a cloud system comes in, it will feed it.

    So when will it stop. My guess is that monsoon is breaking over at Bay of Bengal, and soon we will see wind reversal. the Vapor system will be pushed northwards, and there will be a lull in weather for 3-4 weeks till the pre monsoon rains start.
    The cyclone Laila will be a precursor to the wind reversal.

    Remember all these are met dept theories etc., As for ground reality, Keylong AWS(Automatic Weather Station) has stopped receiving rain. So we can safely say the worst is over.
    Unfortunately, Kashmir has no AWS. which is linked to live IMD Kolkata website. If there were a few AWS linked to the grid, we would be able to see real time precipitation data for Kashmir too.
    However, we have to rely on news reports for these things.


    Last but not the least, this weather phenomena is a stronger repeat of the last years phenomena. Failing of winter is a cause. Its sounds funny, but if winters fail, it can lead to more snowfall.
    This is how it happens.
    Overheating in spring causes low pressure pockets which such moisture. The western disturbances which are weak and cannot reach beyond Afghanistan, are now sucked with more vigour. So if you have 12 degrees above normal in April, it will act like a vaccum pump, sucking everything. This is what is happening.

    Winter snowfall has all but vanished from Uttaranchal, and is scattered in Himachal. That is being replaced by summer rains and freak weather systems.
    Not only that, even the plains now reel under consistent high temperatures.
    Remember, the mercury touching 47 degrees for 2 hours in the afternoon is a lot better than staying 40 from 8am to 8pm.
    Minimum temperatures are also going up, so there is no respite even in early mornings.

    What to expect in future
    1. More snow and storms in April/May
    2. Lack of precipitation in winters
    3. Reduction in monsoon rains(though that is heavily dependent on El Nina/Nino
    4. Shifting of agricultural seasons - For example, Lahaul valley started sowing potatoes early this year due to high temperatures
     
  3. tsk1979

    tsk1979 Reclaimed and Recycled

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    Isolated rain predicted till 24th May in JK/Himachal

    Good news. when MET dept says isolated, it usually means a very light shower here and there.
    So Sringar Leh highway work will not be stopped
    Manali Leh also may remain open

    If you look at the satellite images, you will see that the vapor content is reducing, and is at a much lower levels than previous days
     
  4. MonkeyBoy4u

    MonkeyBoy4u Active Member

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    right now, its raining cats and dogs in some parts of Delhi, does it mean more snow/rain for the hills ?
     
  5. Yogesh Sarkar

    Yogesh Sarkar Administrator

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    By my prediction (I don't rely on weather sites), yes!
     
  6. manish.sharma

    manish.sharma Member

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    Weather sites for India are not reliable, that is true. And yes, by looking at Delhi's temperature, we can easily assume that it must be snowing there in high altitudes. I got an email as well from Himachal Tourism's commissioner's office and even they confirmed that it is indeed snowing there and weather conditions are very bad in and around Manali.
     
  7. tsk1979

    tsk1979 Reclaimed and Recycled

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    Till date I have found short term forecasts for himalayan region blindingly accurate.
    IMD long term monsoon forecast and stuff is totally nonsense, but their short term forecasts are always accurate.
    For example around the 23rd, I saw almost no cloud cover over western himalaya. However IMD website said "A western disturbance will hit the region on 27th".
     
  8. tsk1979

    tsk1979 Reclaimed and Recycled

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    As you can see, sunny days are coming.
    Though a fresh disturbance is expected on 2nd june, current models do not suggest heavy rains. Just isolated rains in JK.
    Is 4 days of sunshine enough to clear the baralacha la?
    I dunno. But I seriously hope so, because the srinagar leh road is something we do not like much.
     
  9. rajarthur

    rajarthur New Member

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  10. tsk1979

    tsk1979 Reclaimed and Recycled

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    IMD is usually sufficient.
     

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