The Weather and Meteorology thread

Alok Sharma

Mountain Goat....!!
I just checked the IMD site and there doesn't seem to be any cloud cover on Himachal and J&K.

But then the short term forecast shows that it shall rain in Keylong and that too to the tune of 50 mm+.

http://imd.gov.in/section/nhac/distforecast/lahaul-spiti.htm

50 mm of rain means atleast 6-8 ft of snow at higher reaches.

Same is the case for Leh...
http://imd.gov.in/section/nhac/distforecast/ladakh.htm

I don't know, how accurate it is but, we have seen that short term forecast of IMD is preety accurate.

But then there is no severe weather warning for greater Himalaya region..:)
 

kshil

Active Member
Have you noticed the following in NWP:

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Guidance

1. The cyclonic storm “PHET” over northwest Arabian Sea off Makaran coast would weaken gradually and move east-northeastwards and cross Pakistan coast near Long. 64.0°E by today, the 6th June, 2010 forenoon.

2. The western disturbance would affect northwest India during next 2 days.

3. A fresh western disturbance would affect northwest India from 7th onward.

It's on 8th when PHET is supposed to cross over the region towards Tibet. Along with that the existing WD and the new WD might create huge rainfall. Almost all weather sites are showing 8th as a very wet day across the whole state.

My understanding is if the snowfall in higher reaches really goes 8 ft, then very little chance of opening the Barlacha before next weekend. From 10th onwards weather is improving it seems but not sure when the next WD is going to hit from the unlimited lists God has proposed for this region this year. Seems to be no respite until Monsoon speeds up and comes close enough to push the westerly air northwards.
 

Alok Sharma

Mountain Goat....!!
As on today, there was no rainfall in keylong, hence no effect on ground condition on Barlacha La.

I also noticed some posts by couple of our friends saying that Barlacha La is open and vehicles are crossing.

But there is a prediction of heavy rain in Lahaul-Spiti for next 2 days.
 

kshil

Active Member
As on today, there was no rainfall in keylong, hence no effect on ground condition on Barlacha La.

I also noticed some posts by couple of our friends saying that Barlacha La is open and vehicles are crossing.

But there is a prediction of heavy rain in Lahaul-Spiti for next 2 days.
Yes you are correct, reason is "PHET" moved slower than expected, IMD predicted rain on 7th and 8th earlier on 5th, which they revised on 6th stating it's 8th and 9th. Also the new WD now stated to be hit from 8th onwards. I won't be surprised if it is revised again though current satellite pics show lots of clouds in the region. But who knows, if God shows some kindness to so many people waiting for so long, if it really rains hard on next 2 days, in all probability Barlacha whatever unofficially it is opened now would be closed again.

The worst part is it doesn't seem to have any end actually. One after other WDs are coming since April. No one knows when this pattern would change but until it is changed, Barlacha would remain uncertain more because of avalanche than snow.
 
As per IMD forecasts, weather should improve in HP and J&K after mid day June 10th. They have predicted clear skies in these two states.
 
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